Interview With Patricia Marins, Independent Analyst Focusing on Defense and Security in Europe and Eurasia

1. In your opinion, what are the strategic objectives of the United States and Israel regarding Iran in this conflict?

They have always had three clear objectives:

1. Regime change
2. Dismantling the nuclear program
3. Limiting the range and production of missiles

None of these objectives were achieved. On the contrary, the Iranian government remains standing, Iran now has every reason to increase missile production and, if it does not already have a nuclear weapon, it now has every reason to have one.
Israel is in a privileged position, as it faces little market pressure and has its war expenses paid for by the US.

2. What are the most immediate and concerning environmental consequences for Iran and the region? Should we also worry about global impacts?

Nothing will be as it was for a long time. Damage to infrastructure involving metallurgy, oil and gas, and pharmaceuticals will take 2-3 years to rebuild, and in some cases up to five years. It is a war that will cause persistent inflation and mark a growing skepticism regarding US military capabilities to defend its bases and handle asymmetric warfare. This scenario directly pushes Asian allies to seek diplomatic solutions for their conflicts. If the situation against Iran neutralized American bases in the region and led to constant shelling, Chinese power is at least 10 times greater and would eliminate the US 7th Fleet and regional bases in less than 24 hours.

3. How is the conflict affecting natural resources such as water, soil, and biodiversity?

There is a huge potential for environmental disasters and we are entering that phase right now, as there will be more combat in coastal cities and more naval assets will be targeted, in addition to industrial facilities. We might see the air pollution that Tehran is experiencing, but at the water level, compromising marine life, fishing communities and, in some areas, water intake; although it is done deep underwater, it is also being bombed and already requires repairs exceeding $50 million dollars.

4. Do you think a diplomatic solution is still possible in the short or medium term?

I don't see any viable diplomatic solution. Iran is in a very favorable strategic position, controlling the strait and having the power to close the other one; it still has its naval and air forces operational, and very little of its arsenal has actually been destroyed, while maintaining a stable missile launch capacity.

Both sides are in a conflict for their own survival. The attacks have created a unified discourse among both the opposition and government supporters in Iran against Israel and the United States, making the Iranian government much less inclined to negotiate. On the American side, there are elections and legal issues, and on the Israeli side, there is a request for a pardon from Netanyahu that has not yet been accepted. They are two men fighting for political victories to escape the crosshairs of justice and, on the American side, to secure a chance at electoral victory. Neither side can afford to give up the narrative of victory.

5. What role can the international community play in de-escalating tensions and protecting the environment?

In this case, the 'international community' is limited to the West, which is already operating special forces in the region in operations against Iran.

We are living through the first war of a multipolar world where Iran uses weapons and defense systems developed and produced by its own industry. This is a scenario the US hasn't faced since World War II. I would say that, in some respects, it has never faced a war against an adversary of Iran's technological caliber.

There is no major concern for the environment at this moment. We will see further degradation of air and water, as well as the soil, which is absorbing a vast amount of chemical particles.
Unfortunately, the organizations that care for the planet are not being heard, and won't be anytime soon, in this war, which has already involved the bombing of even nuclear facilities.